January 31, 2016
We have made it through the first month of 2016. As we reflect over the last 30 days, what kind of month was it on this planet traversing the cosmos?
Have you experienced any black, grey or white swan events this New Year?
“The term “grey swan” is derived from the term black swan which was the term given by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to extremely unlikely, unforeseen risk events with a major impact…the term grey swan to describe events that, potentially, are as catastrophic as black swan events but that are likely to happen more frequently.” http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=grey-swan
January has seen its share of swan events. With oil prices falling like Humpty Dumpty, the market dived to the bottom of the sea. Of course there were other factors affecting the economy besides oil.
Weather played havoc and let the dogs of war ravish the landscape, leaving behind misery and sorrow. Death claimed the innocents, especially from that unmerciful tyrant cancer and the incessant violence with its ever increasing crescendo.
Politics continued its carnival shows. P. T. Barnum would find the current political antics to his liking. Like he said,
“Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.”
Belief is a strong indicator of one’s preferences, especially in politics. Political pundits will say and do whatever it takes to get elected, and their supporters rally for them with unflagging zeal.
There many months left for political shenanigans and upsets. You can count on that reality.
But we digress here.
On this last day let’s take time to ponder on ending the first month of 2016. Those New Year resolutions—how are they going?
I decided not to make any resolutions for 2016. However, I am looking over those panoramic vistas of the eleven months which remain with a degree of anticipation and wonder about what will transpire besides a birthday and other assorted goodies.
Perhaps, capturing the balloons of wonder will make our journey a bit brighter as we face those swans on the road of life. As we say good-bye to January, let’s thrive and embrace every moment and those who are dear to us.
February here we come!
G. D. Williams © 2016
Nassim Taleb: There Are Actually Three Types of Swans
“Let me describe what a Gray Swan Event is: It’s a bridge that can only handle, say, certain size trucks, say, two-ton trucks. And you know, trucks can be much bigger than that. So all it would take is a couple of those for the bridge to collapse. That would be a Gray Swan.”